Why China’s Latin America ties aren’t immune to Trump’s influence

For over two decades, China’s rise in Latin America has been viewed as one of the most significant geopolitical developments in the western hemisphere. Through…

For over two decades, China’s rise in Latin America has been viewed as one of the most significant geopolitical developments in the western hemisphere. Through trade, investment, infrastructure projects and diplomatic engagement, Beijing built a presence that would have been difficult to imagine at the beginning of the century.

The strategy appeared highly successful. Beijing became a leading trading partner for much of the region, financed major projects, expanded its diplomatic footprint and persuaded several countries to sever relations with Taiwan. To many observers, economic influence appeared to be translating into political influence.

Yet recent regional developments raise an uncomfortable question for Beijing: can economic power alone generate durable political influence?

China’s economic position in Latin America remains strong. Trade continues to grow, Chinese companies remain active across the region and few governments appear interested in abandoning economic relations with Beijing. But political influence depends on more than trade and investment. It depends on governments, institutions, strategic calculations and the broader political environment. Several developments suggest that the environment may be changing.

Panama represents perhaps the clearest warning sign. The home of the Panama Canal established relations with China in 2017 and later joined the Belt and Road Initiative, which was widely viewed as evidence of Beijing’s growing influence in a region historically dominated by Washington.

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