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Orban on the brink: could Hungary’s election dent China’s influence in Europe?

Major powers are closely watching Hungary’s election next week – a vote seen as a referendum on Europe’s right and crucial for Chinese interests in…

By Samantha Johnson / April 6, 2026
Major powers are closely watching Hungary’s election next week – a vote seen as a referendum on Europe’s right and crucial for Chinese interests in the EU.
Recent polls show self-styled “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban’s Fidesz trailing challenger Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party by between 19 and 23 points among likely voters ahead of an election on Sunday that has been described as “Europe’s most consequential”.
For China, Russia and the United States under President Donald Trump, an Orban defeat would remove a partner that has repeatedly blocked EU efforts to act against them and opposed parts of the bloc’s social and green agenda.

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For Brussels, meanwhile, a Magyar victory would raise hopes that Budapest may move closer to the EU centre, ousting a member state that has repeatedly blocked efforts to sanction Russia and China over political and human rights disputes.

US President Donald Trump with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House in November. Orban has become a poster boy for the Maga movement. Photo: AFP
US President Donald Trump with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House in November. Orban has become a poster boy for the Maga movement. Photo: AFP

In a show of solidarity with Orban, US Vice-President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Hungary this week – a demonstration of the ideological alliance Orban has struck up with the Maga movement, for which the five-term prime minister has become a poster boy.

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“Hungary is a small but proud country – people say our elections are the most consequential in Europe and I agree,” said Tamas Matura, an associate professor specialising in China at Corvinus University of Budapest.

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