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As Chinese EVs expand global footprint, banks raise export forecasts

Spurred by the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese carmakers are consolidating their foothold in the global auto market, prompting international banks like Goldman…

By Samantha Johnson / June 26, 2026

Spurred by the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese carmakers are consolidating their foothold in the global auto market, prompting international banks like Goldman Sachs to significantly raise their export forecasts.

Buoyant overseas shipments have also effectively created a cushion against falling domestic deliveries and an expected overall sales decline for Chinese automotive groups including BYD and Xpeng, analysts said.

“China’s new-energy vehicle exports have been accelerating, with 63 per cent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by increasing supply of competitive models,” Goldman Sachs said in a research report released on Thursday. “We are raising our China passenger vehicle export volume by 6 to 11 per cent over 2026 to 2030, expecting 7.8 million cars in 2026 to 10 million units in 2030.”

Excluding mainland China and the US, sales of Chinese-branded cars worldwide would account for 17 per cent of the global total in 2030, it added.

The bullish forecasts by the US bank echoed a prediction made by its domestic counterpart JPMorgan, which said last month that Chinese cars would post a 150 per cent sales surge in western Europe over the three years to 2028, grabbing a 20 per cent share of the markets in countries like Germany, Italy, France and the UK with annual deliveries of 2.5 million units.

Chinese carmakers sold a total of 1 million units in western European countries last year.

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