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Current Affairs

Trita Parsi on why US air strikes strengthened Iran’s hand and failed to trigger a revolt

Trita Parsi is co-founder and executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington-based think tank. He is an expert on US-Iranian relations, Iranian foreign policy…

By Samantha Johnson / August 30, 2026

Trita Parsi is co-founder and executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington-based think tank. He is an expert on US-Iranian relations, Iranian foreign policy and the geopolitics of the Middle East. He has written four books on US foreign policy in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran and Israel. Born in Iran, Parsi moved to Sweden with his family as a child and then to the United States as an adult.

This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.
What is your take on US President Donald Trump’s so-called economic D-Day on Iran? Some mainland Chinese and Hong Kong companies are implicated in the new secondary sanctions. Can Trump achieve his goals with these measures or will they backfire? What results will these sanctions bring?

Trump’s D-Day sanctions will either fail to squeeze Tehran very hard and not much happens, or they will be hard-hitting and then the question is whether Iran counter-escalates or surrenders. And the pattern so far is really clear: Iran fears capitulation much more than escalation.

And given that [US Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent has not listed any clear demands, Tehran will interpret the purpose of D-Day as a measure to force its surrender.

So instead of this leading to an end to the conflict, it will just start another round of the escalatory cycle.

Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on August 24. Photo: Reuters
Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on August 24. Photo: Reuters

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