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Prediction markets have priced the Trump-Xi summit. Do the bets have any value?

US President Donald Trump has already announced the date: September 24.
That is when, Trump says, Chinese President Xi Jinping will come to the White House…

By Samantha Johnson / August 31, 2026

US President Donald Trump has already announced the date: September 24.

That is when, Trump says, Chinese President Xi Jinping will come to the White House for a visit following the “America first” leader’s own three-day trip to Beijing in May.

But there is a diplomatic wrinkle.

The Trump administration has publicly put the date on the calendar. Beijing has not formally announced Xi’s Washington visit.

According to sources familiar with the plan, Xi is expected to arrive in Washington on September 23 and depart on September 25, mirroring Trump’s last three-day itinerary in China.

Traders are already pricing the odds of the visit. As of August 27, Polymarket contracts on whether Trump would meet Xi in September and whether Xi would visit the US by September 30 were both priced at about 95 per cent.

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