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Chinese coastguard has 0.3% chance of using weapons in disputed waters, war game suggests

A Chinese coastguard ship is shielding a cluster of fishing boats when several small, fast vessels begin circling – sometimes darting closer, sometimes backing off….

By Samantha Johnson / August 29, 2026
A Chinese coastguard ship is shielding a cluster of fishing boats when several small, fast vessels begin circling – sometimes darting closer, sometimes backing off. Are they just curious fishermen? Or are they probing for a weak spot, trying to lure the patrol ship into a trap?
In the real world, a split-second decision could escalate a tense maritime stand-off into something far more dangerous. This is exactly the kind of nerve‑wracking scenario Chinese coastguard researchers have been running inside a computer war game.

Their findings, published this month, revealed a surprising number: under the existing rule‑based command system, the simulated Chinese coastguard would resort to lethal weapons only 0.3 per cent of the time.

It is a remarkably low risk – but for Beijing, even that chance is too high when the encounters involve sensitive, disputed waters.

To push the risk down to zero, the team developed an artificial intelligence (AI) framework that can read a vessel’s intentions like a seasoned mariner reads the sea.

The AI does not simply stamp a target as “hostile” or “harmless”; it continuously calculates the odds of multiple possible intentions – from routine fishing to coordinated harassment – and adjusts its response accordingly.

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