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Can Europe win a trade war with China It may depend on how victory is defined

As trade tensions with China reach boiling point, EU officials are ramping up engagement with Beijing in search of an off-ramp.
Quietly behind the scenes, though,…

By Samantha Johnson / July 20, 2026
Quietly behind the scenes, though, Europe is preparing for a trade war. In Brussels, a steely determination has set in to ensure the bloc’s manufacturing heartlands are not deindustrialised by the “China Shock 2.0”.

With some industries already haemorrhaging jobs, the EU’s resilience-building and de-risking plans are now laced with deterrents as Brussels looks to acquire leverage and credible retaliatory tools that would allow it to respond if China uses trade coercively.

Some analysts say the sides are already in a trade war, others think the two sides are still preparing for the inevitable storm – and some say that a trade war should be avoided at all costs.

But a question that is increasingly being asked is: could Europe actually win?

Few in Brussels share the hubris of US President Donald Trump, who in March 2018 said “trade wars are good, and easy to win”.

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