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Why China’s sugar stockpiles may blunt an El Nino-fuelled global supply crunch

China is expected to slow sugar imports for the rest of the year as concerns grow over a global supply crunch and higher prices, with…

By Samantha Johnson / September 8, 2026

China is expected to slow sugar imports for the rest of the year as concerns grow over a global supply crunch and higher prices, with Thailand – the world’s second-largest exporter – facing a sharp drop in production.

The world’s second-largest economy relies on imports for about a third of its sugar supply, though high domestic stockpiles are expected to cushion the impact. Analysts estimated only moderate increases in local prices for the sweetener, which is considered a strategic agricultural commodity under Beijing’s food security agenda.
Thailand’s sugar production was projected to drop by at least 17 per cent for the coming 2026 to 2027 season, largely because of El Nino-driven dryness, Bloomberg reported on Monday. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp. anticipated total output to fall below 10 million tonnes, down from 12 million tonnes the previous season.

The forecasts follow a steady rise in global sugar prices over the past month amid persistent supply concerns.

Niu Zhe, an analyst at bulk commodity consultancy Sublime China Information, noted that China’s import policy for the sweetener had already shown signs of tightening during the 2025 to 2026 crushing season.

“With domestic production expected to remain strong in the 2026 to 2027 season and the cost of importing raw sugar from Brazil and Thailand continuing to rise, the out-of-quota import window has completely closed, and the pace of imports is likely to slow markedly in the second half of the year,” he said.

China applies a 15 per cent tariff on sugar imports up to 1.945 million tonnes, with a steeper 50 per cent duty on any volume above that threshold.

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