
The prospect of United States, Chinese and Russian leaders meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Shenzhen this November has revived the Yalta analogy. Talk of a Trump-Xi-Putin summit – echoing the 1945 meeting that reshaped the world – surfaced during the first Trump term, and speculation returned last year with the 80th anniversary of the second world war.
A literal 21st century Yalta remains improbable. Yet its underlying logic is increasingly visible as trade, technology, finance, infrastructure and development are organised through great-power bargains and rivalries.

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