‘Super’ El Nino: Africa facing mass migration, US$20 billion in damages

An ⁠impending ‘super’ El Nino is likely to inflict a combined US$10 billion to US$20 billion of damage ⁠in affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) top climate expert said.

Forecasters are warning that the El Nino weather pattern – which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa – could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue. As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.

“Just this ‌event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1 per cent to 2 per cent on average, which is about US$10 billion to US$20 billion across the continent,” Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview.

The AfDB’s most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2 per cent economic growth this year, rising to 4.4 per cent in 2027, assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases.

That, however, was before forecasts of a ‘super’ or ‘Godzilla’ El Nino were made.

Nyong’s estimate of the likely US$10 to $20 billion hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Nino. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate, but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.