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Indonesia’s strong GDP data prompts ‘resilient but uneven’ growth forecasts

Indonesia’s faster-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter has offered a ray of hope for a sustainable turnaround after months of negative news over the…

By Samantha Johnson / August 10, 2026
Indonesia’s faster-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter has offered a ray of hope for a sustainable turnaround after months of negative news over the rupiah, investor confidence and global uncertainties.

Analysts, however, urged caution about the country’s economic outlook in the coming quarters, saying the latest data also revealed uneven sectoral performance and a reliance on government spending.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew 5.29 per cent year on year in the April-June period, slower than the 5.61 per cent recorded in the first quarter but above a 5.1 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

In its economic report published on Tuesday – a day before the official data’s release – the Institute for Economic and Social Research at University Indonesia estimated second-quarter growth of 4.8 per cent.

Mohammad Edy Mahmud, deputy for national accounts and statistical analysis at statistics agency BPS, told reporters on Wednesday that the quarterly expansion was largely supported by manufacturing and household spending.

Manufacturing, agriculture, trade, construction and mining accounted for 63.73 per cent of gross domestic product on the production side, Mohammad said.

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