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How will Beijing judge Trump’s take on Taiwan? Look for 1 critical factor

Beijing’s assessment of whether US President Donald Trump can “properly handle” the Taiwan issue and US-China relations will largely come down to arms sales to…

By Samantha Johnson / May 16, 2026
Beijing’s assessment of whether US President Donald Trump can “properly handle” the Taiwan issue and US-China relations will largely come down to arms sales to the island, analysts said.

A day earlier, Xi had warned him that mishandling the Taiwan question – the most important issue in bilateral relations – could lead to confrontation or even conflict between China and the United States.

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Shao Yunqun, a senior research fellow in American studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said arms sales were the “most important indicator” for Beijing in assessing the relationship.

“US arms sales to Taiwan have long been a highly sensitive issue in China-US relations and are closely watched by Beijing,” Shao said.

‘A milestone visit’: Xi and Trump set sights on stability for China-US relations

She said that given the summit yielded an agreement on the need for strategic stability and Xi was expected to visit the United States in September, Trump might delay or reduce future weapons sales.

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