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Fearing deflated China demand, US soybean growers pivot to new buyers and biofuel

US soybean growers are “adapting” to a steep decline in China-bound exports by selling to third countries and the American biofuel sector, compensating enough to…

By Samantha Johnson / August 12, 2026
US soybean growers are “adapting” to a steep decline in China-bound exports by selling to third countries and the American biofuel sector, compensating enough to cause only a small drop in production, according to a top trade association’s chief economist.
In November, Beijing committed to buy at least 25 million tonnes of American soybeans annually through 2028, as part of an agreement reached after China stopped the purchases during US President Donald Trump’s trade war in early 2025.

But just slightly more than 12 million tonnes of last year’s crop are “on track” to reach China, which usually imports twice that amount per year to rank as the US crop’s top overseas buyer, said Scott Gerlt, chief economist with the American Soybean Association.

“While we would love to see more soybeans sold to China, US soy has been adapting through two other outlets,” Gerlt told the South China Morning Post on Monday.

One outlet, he said, was increased sales to other foreign buyers and the other was growth in demand from biofuels.

The association represents more than 500,000 soybean farmers, who are concentrated in the US Midwest and cover a combined 83.6 million acres (33.8 million hectares).

In the end, Gerlt said, growers have indicated little change in soybean production.

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